WASHINGTON, Mar 1 (AFP) - The United States faces a decisive year in the Middle East, which is swept by monumental political changes that have created opportunities for moderates and overshadowed Al-Qaeda, the top US military commander in the region said Tuesday.

"When I step back and I look at where we are today, I am, quite frankly, amazed to see the Middle East the way it is," said General John Abizaid, head of the US Central Command.

Abizaid pointed to demonstrations in Lebanon that forced the resignation of a pro-Syrian government, a succession of elections in Afghanistan, Iraq and even Saudi Arabia and progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front as evidence of "monumental if not revolutionary" change in the region.

"I'm very optimistic, as I look to the future, about the way ahead. 2005 can be a decisive year for us," the general said.

Abizaid acknowledged those developments may yet turn violent, but his was the most positive military assessment of the outlook for the region since US forces invaded Iraq nearly two years ago, setting off a bloody insurgency that has become a magnet for Islamic extremists from around the region.

The withdrawal of Syrian troops and intelligence personnel from Lebanon was "inevitable" in the face of mass demonstrations in Beirut that forced the resignation of the pro-Syrian government, Abizaid said.

Syria, he predicted, would reassess its role in the region and conclude its interests lie in respecting the sovereignty of its neighbors and become a "cooperative force for stability" in the region.

The general also expressed confidence that the Lebanese were capable of establishing a sovereign state without slipping back into civil war, which tore the country apart in the 1970s and 1980s.

"I think it's very clear that as you look at the demonstrations in Lebanon, which are absolutely unheard of in the Arab world, ... that the Lebanese people feel that they are ready to move forward without Syrian troops and intelligence people on their soil," he said.

More broadly, the presence of US military forces in the region had given moderates a "chance to change their own future," he said.

He said intelligence indicates Al-Qaeda is having difficulty raising money and recruiting.

Despite their videotapes and statements, he said, "They are having trouble causing people to pay attention to them because of all the political activity going on that shows moderation actually has a chance to win."

He said Syria continued to be a problem for the United States in Iraq, serving as a safe haven for senior Saddam-era Baathists, who have set up what he called "coordination nodes" there to finance and direct the Iraqi insurgency.

The recent capture of deposed dictator Saddam Hussein's half brother, Sabawi Ibrahim al-Hassan al-Tikriti, who is suspected of being a leader of the insurgency, was "a positive step forward," but Syria needed to do more, Abizaid said.

Syria has stepped up border controls and sought out liaisons with US forces, but it was not clear that infiltrations from Syria had decreased as a result, he said.

"Although it's clear they are trying to do something, it remains to be seen how much they will do," he said.

Abizaid admitted the insurgency in Iraq had intensified between November and January compared with the same period a year before.

He said, however, it failed to derail the January 30 elections, a crucial test of strength.

"It was the single, most-important day for the insurgents to come out in force and to disrupt. It was their stated goal. Terrorists, Baathists, you name it, they had to come out and they had to make it fail," he said.

Abizaid said that he and General George Casey, who is in charge of multi-national forces in Iraq, had met with their intelligence analysts and concluded that rebels had fielded about 3,500 insurgents on January 30. "And we say to ourselves, 'Why didn't they put more people in the field? Where were they?'"

"They threw their whole force at us, we think, and yet they were unable to disturb the elections because people wanted to vote," he said.

Iraqi intelligence and treason within his own network has dealt blows to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian militant behind a campaign of suicide car-bombings and beheadings, the general said, adding, "His days in Iraq are numbered."

But Abizaid acknowledged gaps in US intelligence about the broader insurgency.

He played down fears that the Shiite victory in the polls will result in a government under the sway Iran, saying he did no see much impetus toward the creation of Shiite theocratic state.

However, he said, Iran continued to play an "unhelpful role," noting its support of radical cleric Moqtada Sadr, who Abizaid said might lead another violent campaign against the new government.

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